Because of its torrid pace over the past 17 months, many investors are starting to point to indicators that predict that the stock markets may be nearing a peak. First, corporate insiders have become net sellers of stocks. According to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, for the week ended February 1, 2013, corporate insiders of companies listed on the NYSE sold 9.20 shares for every share that they bought.*  Second, the amount of margin debt – the money borrowed to buy securities on the NYSE – is at a 5-year high. The last time it reached this high was in February 2008.

On January 31, 2013, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond stood at 2.00 percent, an increase of 62 basis points (0.62 percent) since the low hit in July 2012. However, the yield remains much lower than the 10-year average of 3.70 percent. With the December Core Consumer Price Index rising 1.9 percent year-over-year, inflation-adjusted bonds for the next five years are trading at a negative real yield. Yet, inflows into fixed income investment vehicles continue to outpace inflows into stock investment vehicles (which have seen net outflows since 2007).