Eduardo Porter (NYT)

Eduardo Porter (NYT) by The Financial Exchange

00:10:55

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Baby boomers are retiring at a rate of 101001. Day begs the question. Is a new golden age for American workers around the corner we're joined by Eduardo Porter from the New York Times to talk about that very topic. Good morning Eduardo. Good morning after reading your article I was ready to go to my boss and ask parades. I. Well weighted have been writing. Pretty sharply at least being in real terms after that capping. You know they have let Coakley dole in your eluded to this in your article. Labor participation rate particularly. 2554. Men still way off of historical averages is an. Yeah. Don't yet and back to that read. Labor participation. Of these men ain't going back it before and had been geek aren't paying. Hurry and I believe in the end of World War II so. It didn't. Really in new new phenomenon I think more or more. Or they'll look at good right. And so where are you labor short in the ought. What day it do you EU alluded to a drug addiction. In your article you think that's a portion of a unity in the open your crisis drug addiction chemical dependency alcoholism. Well lit are things that you re important fact. Or. The army guys are worked for our. On some form. And to bear and those are on them. Like he did you know you'll which caught that and though Allen Kruger never actually argued that about it. Bit of the decline in the labor why in primary goals. Primate in May and in 1999. Is viewed an increase in be used to be. Oh the painkiller. So Eduardo when you look at the job market the job scene if you will why have we not seen much more. Wage growth wage growth. I think has been anemic little edit and I've been looking for wage growth for the last three or four years because I keep hearing about worker shortages but nobody's making any more money. Well in a way I would pay that back why I think what happened. Is that wage growth in nominal terms I think the headline number for weight has been very low by historic bad. But that act is also that inflation has been dramatically low or. And believe you look at the real wage increase. The real wage at the media that is you know half the workers are doing better workers worse and at that point. The median wage for all our workers is growing about it. It was growing during the dotcom boom of the ninety which wasn't a very bad week. So in a way that notion that wages are. Is I think it product something that the money. Right that that the nominal number looks so small and and and also to be there because we're coming out of there very long period. Of a wage stagnation could go back decades. And puritan dramatic lead back labor conditions. Can be great. Would what impact will robotics have on worker shortage Oscars I talked to somebody in the restaurant business. And they are looking at a major capital expenditures near in the fast food restaurant business. You're looking at a major capital expenditure on robotics and they think they can reduce their headcount substantially. Yeah well look I think that they're back. Or he is is it true that question at weddings and that will affect you know the entire work so that it is. Trend that I was talking about about. I aged man leading labor or consistently at the end of World War II is more or less the story about technology. Taking out that jobs. The guy on the bottom end of the field to let skill work it is currently going on for very long time. Because we had replacement. Workers by machines. Computer. Secretaries guys work factory. For some time now. But what at and expect to continue and I do expect that be acting skill level but both critically routine stop you. Are likely to be out of that job within ten years if not sooner because of automation because you know machines are really good. And the heat. That boat that are either on the very creative side of the labor market you know and fighting. Books and stop or people at the very bottom and that the labor market Courtney B. Treating people in and they help older boat in. A nursing homes are and they're all. I think those are the article to audit. And a little bit and it wouldn't have been going on right now he ought to make it a lot of jobs. In the middle of the way it can be sure. But not that much at the bottom and it. So let me just be clearer on this it's a good time to be registered nurse. Probably a bad time to be cashier or warehouse worker. Yeah. And perhaps in only Spaniard sign that the Google are a bit eerie about the. Yeah now you know. You say you know your your preaching to the choir. I've I've been telling my kids he'd better develop a scale because if you're not good at something it's hard to do. If you're not doing a job that can't be done by iRobot you might be at work. Yet I don't think you can always kind of remember is that right this year that will see all the law is an old. Way EO hundreds of years ago and it never quite happened. Technology has reach secret the job market continue. It not be that big job that is created other. And depending on where you are on the on the on the spectrum of Europe that we need to take it back into the thing. That's gonna determine your future write it you are a condition that we. These changes from some of the hour you'll do well. And and and that had a lot to do we you know education. But that Eduardo have we ever had a period of time where technology. Improve this rapidly before unity you're talking about the industrial revolution perhaps where you know people came off the farms to work in factories. In the big cities a hundred years ago but if we ever seen anything like this before perhaps we have. But yet. Not even sure that it is predictably. Is that is erupting because that this that we guidance given in a twit they're the famous quote I eager yield a game. We want it flying cars and we got a 140 character. And and to some extent I think that true remember her so that we're that we're war. We're the means motive and occasional where or drawn buggies and that they unmanned put it on the moon means that that they economic. Reformation of the twentieth century world. Absolutely remarkable. You know I he looks super cool. I wouldn't look like the back after me and that brought the real way to combustion engine that telephone you know. Air travel. You know had Trent that the big shipping you know make it hard to read the piece things. Eduardo thanks for your time and great researcher on the article and we are very much appreciated. You Eduardo Porter New York Times and he raises a good point fairness and community they about a hundred years ago. There were 24 million horses in the United States. And now the other nine. Yeah it's it it we we always have an economy that's in transition Porsche used to be elect and the car. Oh yeah. You know we take you to church that what were able to do now is as dramatically. Changed you just the last ten years you think back the first iPhone was ten years ago. Think about what's changed since then in terms of you know how often you have to go to the bank now wait we need when I go to deposit check out of the we need a picture and my phone I wonder unity but I think most everybody has switched over to not necessarily an iPhone but certainly. Some kind of a Smartphone I have. A friend he's a plumber. And he would give me so much grief about my iPhone. And then. Finally. I hadn't seen him in about six months he pulled out a Smartphone and all it did I give him the Dickens because he kept saying you don't ask a Smartphone a flip phones and. We'll tell you for a lot of the a lot of the guys in the trades of any track guy that I used to. And he runs the whole business office phone so we know it comes to my place does everything and then just put everything right into his phone emails mean invoice never things don't. Talked to a real state agent. Oh yeah I mean that that's a business where you get to everything on the. A lot of realtors will walk around with an iPad and nose to yup it is and yet the bigger the bigger view their wanna show. Their prospective client. But I agree you know they have their purchase and sale agreement on there're. I phoned in a shower here they get referrals for mortgages the referral home inspectors and in the US right now via the percentage penetration of Smartphones so how many what what percentage of phone users have Smartphones let me guess because it would use it it wasn't long ago when it was like 5050. Now gonna say 8730. About 80% 80% 80% Smartphone still 20% dumb phones but as recently as the third quarter of 2012 sit just five years ago now it was 5050. I ever brother in law he still got a football. If for him via I'm hoping to go back to one at some point. It we we get pretty addicted to those tools the Dow's off fifteen points and oil surprising to me. Is trading over fifty dollars a barrel fifty dollars and 66 cents per barrel as the price of war. Gold is down 1222 dollars an ounce at 1293 in the Dow is down thirteen points at 22399. When we come back. We're going to be talking about Rhode Island wholesale prices. You've got Barry Armstrong. Financial exchange shall look I mean Cilic in new radio network.
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