Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Gary I know we normally call this the stock talks yes I guess we could. Wouldn't change the name to I wouldn't call this the anti stocks fell and now for you walk. Joining us right now is Chris Versailles chief mistreat dot com. Chris thanks for joining us. Are bigger oh. Back Chris I was looking at your recommended pics here and one of them is SH. Which is pro shares short S&P 500 so this is for people who just hate the stock market right. Yeah I think it I would matter. Differently. You know we've seen this growing disconnect between the speed of the domestic economy push out. Policies. Consumers that are you know the last several retail sales report spending you've got a trillion dollars in credit card. Rising bank art. Auto subprime delinquencies so that there's a lot of rookies to be nervous. At the same time you know the stock market has simply mixed loaded in the presidential election. And it's given you know it coincide with a little bit march and April if we act but we're. Stepping in front of them now. He's in and your listeners. That's when companies. You know they do this or times a year they report how they formed in the last three month period. Quarter and they offer now to update their guidance or outlook what they expect either in current quarter panel that the in this week would get 300 companies reporting next week we have all just shy at all. In the week after that it may we have something like other well hundred companies or so. All needed to combat areas and if we look at the data we've gotten. The expectation in people had. We're gonna need to see a re set in the market meaning expectations for earnings will come down. And you know it's it's not the place yet so we wanted to long especially. Newser the term thanks Merrill Lynch down. That 83%. Of institutional investors think the market is overvalued. At the highest level. Since the monthly report was started being issued in 1999. And I I call that out is bella. You remember what happened not long after 1990. At the same time going into today we are on pace for the worst month in the stock market since January of 2016. And in fairness earnings estimates are expected be up ten point 7% one of the best performances in years so how much of what you're saying is already known by the market. I'm gonna say not much say that because if you look at last year. We came in very similar to how we came into the earnings expectations are all percent this you I've hundred. You know where we wound up for point sixteen EPS grew for the people at 100 companies all said and done. But all of zero point 5%. Slight downward revisions that it's. Well yeah I think it was like it was that it was any negatives welcome those revisions and you know for the first quarter. The Atlanta that GDP forecast back early January was over 3% GDP. As I think yet if not the people war it is now. All the zero point 5% for the first quarter end of the other data that we yet the empire manufacturing index for April and up the first quarter 80. Missed expectations. Real Gupta mark and a production index. That saw actual manufacturing activity contract. On circle month in an even if we back out the horrible. Relative to expectations or com march auto sales manufacturing activity still fail in mark so get a little. If we're a profit on this this gloomy here it is pretty is there are some negative issues is no question about that with SH the pro shares short S&P 500. Is this leveraged or is this just. Just a straight out that against US and. It is straight out in ET a against Hal yes but under groups having said. Our walk out there are bitter fruit at all to do the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the simple dog are those the Russell 2000. In her BR WM and yet there are ones that you use leverage even. The UK yet to act reacts you know with every looking or depending of course on your respect. And all for your time horizon those double triple when you wanna do day today. Or more hour to hour beat. Has not yet it yeah I mean right yet but in the the it incurred we're. Betting against the mark against the you know you you can be right and they'll have bet. All we're right. There it is it is to be clear on fraud. It would risk and you gotta have the investment summit and in more importantly the time we watch. All right Chris for such a mystery dot com thank you very much we got acute. ET I grew a little lot of woody says the difference was. In 99 there was a place to go you could buy the CD Payne 6% are you guys know that the team back in 19992000. He could buy a five year CD. Paying five or 6% had a place to go there was a place to hide the ten year treasury was six point 2% then it's 2.2 right now that's a huge huge difference and unfortunately it's not a good reason to invest in stocks did that Tina. Theory there is no alternative but it does keep investors. In stocks positioned labs recently my dividend that's of them.