Ana Swanson (NY Times, NAFTA)


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Napster is a free trade agreement that was negotiated back in 1994. Between the United States Canada. And Mexico. It is now in the process of being renegotiated. And we're joined by Anna Swanson from the New York Times talked about what some of the sticking points are. Hi on a welcome to the show. So the news not that talks were did they start in August. That's great though we keep up this profit processed and ten and they have been very tight and people for the negotiations which is. Great poster up but before the end of the year but yesterday we just got that news that they are going to. Pushed it back a little that it keep negotiating into the first quarter of next year. All right so the negotiations are ongoing. What are they sticking points where you were aware of the challenges between these three countries. And then there are a lot of challenges in this great country. I would say that you know overall from her proud perspective. I'm attempt administration's. View is that this has been that bad deal for American workers. And that is given more advantages to Canada and Mexico and led to an especially large trade deficit. I'm between the US and Mexico. But where specifically. The way that they've proposed to deal with that. Is there it is several. Measures for one and and changing the rules that effort how much of that product needs to be made in North America and in the US specifically. It darted Q in Chile as carefree. Trade between the countries around the fact that it meant. Really effective. There at number of other positions. For example in creating contact that it deals that would allow the deal automatically expire in five years unless the three countries. I'd vote to continue it could come and then significant changes Q. The ways that the countries through tunnels I had been viewed and debate that act cultured educated in the treatment. You know on the renegotiation. After five years in talking to corporate leaders they're very uncomfortable with that because they make. Multi billion dollar decisions. Based on long term trade agreements. That protect their great photo business leaders about how he's at their reasoning like these agreements just to provide certainty for that. And when they make an investment. At typically data tears and some kind of back and fired a long time you know typically more than five years without. Many are paint that. You know if you intend tech and a fighter. They agree that you basically. You know businesses have to plan at this NAFTA might think that it it's the administration countered that. You know if if that this particular date cream and detonated five years of course welcome good to continue it ended on a good agreement we should be added in the first place. But businesses today that that would be scary detective with the way that they plan and then testing create jobs or. Yet he talked to Mary Barr feel that that's an untenable issue Wednesday she can't win on the what. Who it is next year you've guy you know our congressional elections in November but you also have provincial elections in Canada. And isn't the Mexican. President up for reelection next summer. Yeah that's great so bad in one of the biggest issues with the delay that pay behind plane was proving to be a challenge. Four is. The administration and the other negotiators. Hammering at these theories the differences. But it felt good issue that delays which is that once you get into next year. You start to brand into the campaign for the Mexican potential election and it politely about that NAFTA could become a kind of punching bag in the back in the government could lose the ability to support. You know what is the politically. Unpopular deal and compassion to accept and count and then. And it and it says the United States held. Has a kind of legislation rain now that it lacked the administration to initiate guilt the congress for example of pretend and to conduct cannot. At any amendment that take a look at a Trade Promotion Authority and that also expires at mid next year's stokes. After that it might be very very different he can't NAFTA passed in congress. And the challenges. If they don't pass something. All three countries loose as I understand it right you'd like the United States will lose jobs you're you're have a lot of people in Texas that are upset. If if NAFTA gets torn up. Canada is gonna lose jobs but it would appear that Mexico has the most to lose if NAFTA goes by the wayside. It looks like that bill. There are you know very industries that win an orderly depending on what happened there are tremendously in the united case that would benefit probably have to apart. But there with the new that he became not the other day that was interesting that says that. On net the United States with with about 250000. Africa in nineteen if you bet. It would lose even towards the fanatic pat aspect would be about two days picky about the job that it would give announced. Candidate would lose about a 125000. Dean keep in mind that they have that you know much smaller population. And Mexico was loose and 150000. Jobs and that so it'd be a huge economic impact that he's. And these are net jobs say at what point out that's not you know you people say while we're gonna do we might lose a 125000. Jobs will pick up another happened you know that's. Net loss because of the decline in trade when you when you built tariff see it it did hurt your economy but. The. That's OK and there are other pastor Chris Hughes felt probably the that could but the price that many products for consumers would drag. Most likely. Fruit and vegetables. Out of our deals that include cocaine and other product also. And there could be political side they could eat the president having issues impacting other aspects as in and said that you know for example. But the problem I think I don't have on is those 125000. Jobs that you referenced the rural red state jobs. Made that the people that voted for him. That's it said that job losses they're probably concentrated very heavily in the midwest and at northern United States and the agriculture and not a manufacturing. And then there are of course areas that did the court the president pageant. On is sitting here now it's October 18. Do you think he added a NAFTA deal done nerd they are the these three parties ops than enough to you know encourage self inflicted wounds. Right now it looks like there's a very challenging and terror pact with the cap on the tank it is could be. Difficult to pull it you know we kinda put that way because. Unity administration tactic has tickled for remaking this key element. Mexico and Canada are not necessarily. He had that willing to make major concessions that packet inspecting in. In return and the question was collected. The US going to get up where that aren't I would say you know that the pact has looked like it kind of cracked your path as. Lee and they still has earned some time to get it out but I'm not payments. Oregon on a thank you very much for your time we appreciate. Honest Swanson New York Times. Now trapped gave it loaded the what do the prediction boards suggesting on NAFTA with regards to NAFTA agave IQ when you look if they did it take a look at. It's like he lists like Vegas in terms of NAFTA you can you can find out what the odds are his people actually wager on this. Not seen anything on NAFTA no no dude they figured to be one of the many. The wager I I don't know whether gets done or not the everybody loses if it doesn't get it you know. You until we won we had a text that came in that said how does everybody lose jobs no one gains jobs work doesn't just disappear. So if you think about it this way if I were to raise taxes on everyone across the board. That reduces jobs because all of a sudden people don't have as much mines dependence of the economy contracts because that money is being taken and used somewhere else. Getting rid of NAFTA and simply going to a situation Korea potentially high tariffs between countries does the same thing so. The question I didn't tax it's not about getting rid of NAFTA it's about making NAFTA fair.