Vote of Confidence

President Barack Obama today offered Republican Scott Brown a vote of confidence. How? He issued a video in support of Martha Coakley. The political equivalent of a handshake instead of a kiss, the president is resisting requests from Coakley to schedule a campaign stop here. Indicating that his information points to a Scott Brown win.
"It's not on our schedule to go to next week," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said matter-of-factly.
Obama doesn't need to be connected to any more losing Democrats - especially in a state like Massachusetts, where Ted Kennedy is supposed reach from the grave to lift his party's nominee into office. Conversely, if Coakley was leading, Obama would be pulling into town with guns blazing so that he could take credit for the kill on Wednesday.
In a bid to bolster lagging support Martha Coakley's Campaign may have recently enlisted the assistance of President Barack Obama.  Fox News is reporting that Secret Service details have been spotted in various locations fueling speculation that Obama may make a last minute visit to Massachusetts over the upcoming weekend.
If trends change - we'll know - when the White House announces an Obama visit. In the meantime, there have been no internal numbers leaked by the Coakley campaign since Monday, when they released bogus numbers indicating a 14 point lead. Why bogus?
Mellman surveyed 800 likely voters on Jan. 8-10. His sample included 49 percent self-identified Democrats, 25 percent independents and 24 percent Republicans.
Notice the 25% independent voters surveyed? Massachusetts is more than 50% independents, and they are leaning strongly toward Scott Brown by most measures. As you would expect.
National Republicans tracking the race declined to reveal their own internal poll numbers. But a GOP strategist involved in the contest asked “If the Democrats honestly believe their lead is as strong as this poll suggests then why are they rushing staff, money and other resources up to Massachusetts?"
More importantly, the Coakley poll was completed before Monday night's prime time, multi-station debate, in which Coakley was flatter and less appealing than normal while Scott was very effective in getting his message out. Political analyst Stu Rothenberg has downgraded Coakley.
Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat in Tuesday’s special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up. Whatever the shortcomings of the Coakley campaign (and they certainly exist), this race has become about change, President Obama and Democratic control of all of the levers of power in Washington, D.C. Brown has “won” the “free media” over the past few days, and if he continues to do so, he will win the election.
The panic at the White House must be as palpable as the rage in Congress, where Democrats are privately blaming a terribly mismanaged first year by the president for putting their careers in danger. Back to Obama's video message:
Obama says in the video that “opponents of change” are “pouring money” into Massachusetts to “tie up the Senate” and prevent a vote on health insurance reform, financial reform, and other issues important to the nation. What Obama doesn’t say, however, is that the pro-Coakley outside forces have actually outspent the anti-Coakley forces by an almost two-to-one margin, as Chris Cillizza reported earlier today at The Fix blog at WashingtonPost.com.
While the Obama presidency has blown all of its political capital on the public option and has little steam left, a Scott Brown win would mark a clear line of demarcation for even the politically disengaged to understand - the official end of Hope & Change.