Surge, or Purge???

The surge worked for Iraq, but it's not working for McCain. His move up in the polls from last weekend petered out during the week, and weekend numbers, which generally favor the Democrats, are showing a stalled race. The Real Clear Politics tally shows an average lead of 6.7% for Barack, and today's Rasmussen report remains at 5%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday once again shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote while John McCain is five points back at 46%. This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52% (see trends).

For the past seven days, Obama has been ahead by three to five points. For the month before that, the Democratic nominee was up by four to eight points every day.

A McCain win rests in the hands of some unforeseen circumstance - large numbers of voters who've been claiming falsely that they're planning to vote for Barack, a failure of the youth vote to get out of bed on Tuesday, or perhaps an electorate that's so excited by the race that McCain voters, who would normally be sitting the race out, show up to cast a ballot.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53% (see trends). Obama gets positive reviews from 88% of Democrats and 56% of unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliateds say the same about McCain. Obama leads by ten among women but trails by two among men.

While McCain could still win on Tuesday, the odds tilted severely against him when the economic meltdown occurred in September.

The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 for 46% of voters. Just 20% see national security as the top priority. The importance of the economic issue is highlighted by the fact that McCain was leading by three points in mid-September just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and made public the depth of Wall Street’s problems. Shortly after that, Obama moved ahead and has enjoyed a stable lead that has lasted into the final weekend of Election 2008.

I'm still expecting the country to come to its senses on Tuesday - I have trouble imagining people being dumb enough to vote the Democrats into total control - so we'll just have to wait and see.