Polls Show Tight Race, Deval Still Leading in Mass

A flurry of polls was released today in the Massachusetts governor's race, as well as other statewide races. All show Deval Patrick leading, the worst of which is the Suffolk poll, which is highlighted a few posts down.

The Suffolk University/Channel 7 poll, conducted Monday to Wednesday, found Patrick leading Baker, 46 percent to 39 percent, with Cahill at 9 percent and Stein at 2 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

This poll appears to be out of sync, giving Deval a 7 point lead. I'll give more details of why I think it's wacked after I've fully absorbed all the numbers.

Then, there's a Statehouse News Service Poll that shows a much closer race.

Gov. Deval Patrick earned 40 percent, Republican Charlie Baker 37 percent, independent Tim Cahill 9 percent and Green/Rainbow party candidate Jill Stein 3 percent. About 7 percent of respondents said they are still undecided. Margin of error of the survey is plus or minus 4.8 percent. The poll was taken Oct. 25-27.

Rasmussen also released a poll today.

The Massachusetts governor’s race is now closer than it has been all year. They show a two point race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick with 46% support, while Republican challenger Charlie Baker gets 44% of the vote. Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill remains a distant third with six percent (6%). Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, but just one percent (1%) is still undecided.

If you average the polls together, that would give Deval a 4 point lead - a margin easily overwhelmed if the turnout is uneven as a result of the vastly more excited voters on the right.