Submitted By Todd on March 10th at 11:12pm
Is the health reform vote resolved? Michael Barone doesn't think so, and he sees a difficult road for Pelosi to get it through the house.
Are there enough votes in the House to pass the Senate's health-care bill? As of today, it's clear there aren't. House Democratic leaders have brushed aside White House calls to bring the bill forward by March 18, when President Barack Obama heads to Asia. Nevertheless, analysts close to the Democratic leadership tell me they're confident the leadership will find some way to squeeze out the 216 votes needed for a majority.
The newspaper The Hill shows many in congress still undecided.
Undecided (80) Jason Altmire (Pa.) * Many view Altmire as key to passage. He said on Fox News he has "open mind." Voted no in committee and on floor but bottom line is that his yes vote is gettable Joe Baca (Calif.) * (Y) Must have for leadership Brian Baird (Wash.) Retiring member who bucked party on Iraq war surge Melissa Bean (Ill.) (Y) Conservative Democrat well positioned for midterm election Marion Berry (Ark.) * (Y) Has been critical of the president since announcing his retirement Sanford Bishop (Ga.) * (Y) Favors Stupak provision Tim Bishop (N.Y.) (Y) Must have vote for leadership John Boccieri (Ohio) * GOP target Rick Boucher (Va.) GOP target Allen Boyd (Fla.) Facing primary challenge Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) * (Y) Secured language for district before last year's vote Chris Carney (Pa.) * (Y) A no vote here would be a setback for leadership Ben Chandler (Ky.) * Keeps cards close to vest; voted no in November Jim Cooper (Tenn) * (Y) Has had up-and-down relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) Jim Costa (Calif.) * (Y) Secured project for his district before November vote Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) Was a late yes in the fall Joe Courtney (Y) Wary of excise tax, but likely yes Henry Cuellar (Texas) * (Y) Supported health bill and climate change, surprising some on Capitol Hill Kathleen Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Her yes vote is key to passage Joe Donnelly (Ind.) * (Y) Among the Stupak dozen -- will vote no unless abortion language in Senate bill is changed, according to The Rochester Sentinel Mike Doyle (Pa.) * (Y) Must have vote for leadership; not politically vulnerable Steve Driehaus (Ohio) * (Y) In tossup race in November Bob Etheridge (N.C.) * (Y) Passed up Senate run Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) * (Y) Senate hopeful Bill Foster (Ill.) (Y) GOP target Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target Bart Gordon (Tenn.) * Retiring committee chairman Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) (Y) Despite many threats, Arizona liberal expected to vote yes John Hall (N.Y.) (Y) Democratic leaders may lose other Dems from N.Y., but need to keep Hall on board Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) (Y) Politically vulnerable, but favored to win her reelection race Baron Hill (Ind.) * (Y) Passed up Senate run Jim Himes (Conn.) (Y) Must have vote for leadership. Likely yes Steve Kagen (Wis.) (Y) Told Fox 11 in Wisconsin that he prefers more incremental approach; doesn't trust Senate Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) * (Y) Voted with leadership first time around, but doesn't toe the party line Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) (Y) In tossup race this November Ron Kind (Wis.) (Y) Represents competitive district. Voted against bill in committee Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target Ron Klein (Fla.) (Y) GOP target Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.) Easily won her race in 2008; her 2010 race will be tighter Jim Langevin (R.I.) * (Y) Langevin's seat not in danger this fall. He has previously fended off primary challenges Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) * (Y) Will not vote for abortion language in Senate bill, but has other concerns as well Dan Maffei (N.Y.) (Y) Former Ways and Means aide is seen as gettable Betsy Markey (Colo.) Was a late no last time. In early March, Markey declined to be interviewed by Denver Post on her position on bill. Likely target for Democratic leaders Mike McMahon (N.Y.) Was a late no last fall Jerry McNerney (Calif.) (Y) Waiting for final language Michael Michaud (Maine) * (Y) Likely yes Walt Minnick (Idaho) Probable no vote Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) * (Y) In November, seat was considered safe. Now, he's in a tight race Dennis Moore (Kan.) (Y) Retiring this year Chris Murphy (Conn.) (Y) GOP target Scott Murphy (N.Y.) Reelection race looks good, for now Richard Neal (Mass.) * (Y) Better vote yes if he wants to take Ways and Means gavel; fan of Stupak language Glenn Nye (Va.) In tossup race Jim Oberstar (Minn.) * (Y) Wants to vote yes, but also wants Stupak language David Obey (Wis.) * (Y) Waiting to review bill language; likely yes Solomon Ortiz (Texas) * (Y) Was a late yes last time around Bill Owens (N.Y.) (Y) One of first votes in Congress was "yes" on House health bill; media reports have him as undecided Tom Perriello (Va.) * (Y) In tossup race this fall Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) * (Y) Voted against bill in committee, and for it on the House floor Nick Rahall (W.Va.) * (Y) Another panel chairman on the fence Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) * (Y) Considered by Cook Political Report to "likely" retain seat Tim Ryan (Ohio) * (Y) Opposes anti-abortion rights John Salazar (Colo.) * (Y) GOP target Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) (Y) Was a late yes in November Mark Schauer (Mich.) (Y) In tossup race this fall Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) (Y) In tossup race, according to Cook Political Report Heath Shuler (N.C.) * Doesn't hold his tongue when he opposes Democratic leaders Vic Snyder (Ark.) * (Y) Not seeking reelection. Seen as likely yes Zack Space (Ohio) * (Y) Voted yes in committee and yes on the floor last year John Spratt (S.C.) * (Y) Budget Committee chairman is in competitive reelection race Bart Stupak (Mich.) * (Y) More optimistic about brokering a deal on abortion with House leaders, but time is running out Betty Sutton (Ohio) (Y) GOP target John Tanner (Tenn.) * House deputy whip not running for reelection, but he still will need to be convinced to get to yes. Voted no in committee and on floor Dina Titus (Nev.) (Y) One of three female House Democrats to vote no last November. She also voted no at committee level Paul Tonko (N.Y.) (Y) Waiting for CBO numbers Charlie Wilson (Ohio) * (Y) Considered less vulnerable this fall than other Ohio Democrats David Wu (Ore.) (Y) Was undecided for three hours during 2003 Medicare drug vote, then voted with the GOP John Yarmuth (Ky.) (Y) Considered a team playe. Likely yes * — Voted for Stupak amendment in November (Y) — Voted yes in November Note: Spokesmen for Berry, Driehaus, Lipinksi and Stupak said their bosses will vote against the bill unless the Stupak language is adopted. Stupak has said a dozen lawmakers who voted for the House measure could change their votes based on the abortion provisions.The Hill also shows 24 Dems leaning toward voting no to ObamaCare. Budget analysis from the CBO should be out soon, and that might cause the sudden solidification of some undecideds one way or the other.