Not Again!

For some perspective on the new Suffolk University poll of the Massachusetts governors race, let's turn to the Scott Brown win. Here's what the Boston Globe wrote 9 days before the election.

Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.

My favorite phrase is "buoyed by her durable statewide popularity!" Anyway, the Globe's accuracy mishap, committed when those of us who were honestly observing the race had realized that Scott would win, is an indication that this election year is a dangerous one for Democrats.

“She’s simply better known and better liked than Brown,’’ said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll for the Globe.

I'm picking up a similar misread of the moment with the story on the Charlie Baker/Deval Patrick matchup from the Herald today.

The treacherous defection of Tim Cahill’s running mate to Charlie Baker’s camp has backfired on the GOP candidate and helped propel Gov. Deval Patrick to a seven-point lead in the race for governor, a new Suffolk University/7News poll shows.

Seven points is not a big surprise from the Suffolk people - they had the Governor leading by that amount last month, as well. What seems off base is the tone of the story.

“Whether they like Deval Patrick or not, people are still saying he’s run the best campaign and he has the best temperament to be governor,’’ said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He’s on the goal line. But he hasn’t gotten the touchdown yet.’’

Massachusetts is suffering the same malaise as the rest of the country, and this is the state where voters rebelled against the giveaway of "Ted Kennedy's seat" to the force fed successor chosen by the liberal elite con-man class. It is not lost on voters that Deval has been a miserable failure as governor, and that none of what he promised has come true.

With an astonishing 80 percent of likely voters aware of Cahill’s lawsuit accusing former aides of sabotaging his campaign, one in four said the debacle made them more likely to vote for Democrat Patrick.

Deval is wrong on all the key issues - he's pro-illegal immigration, he fights for bigger government, he is dismantling the state's education standards as a payoff to his union partners. He is a masterful, slick campaigner, but the energy that swept Scott into office and now threatens Barney Frank is alive and well in the Patrick Gubernatorial bid.

“Tim Cahill is toast, and Charlie Baker is getting burned by his manner and message,” said 7News political editor Andy Hiller, who added Patrick is like the “Mona Lisa” with his “serene smile” as the other two go for the jugular.

We'll see. I'm more inclined to believe the Baker campaign numbers that show Charlie up 6% or so. As his campaign manager, Tim O'Brien pointed out this morning on WRKO, an incumbent who is up 7 points doesn't run ads attacking his opponent, he runs cuddly ads about himself. Back to the Scott Brown race for one last reminder.

Coakley is seen as the candidate best able to handle almost every issue voters were asked about, even those that Brown has made centerpieces of his campaign, such as taxes, the economy, and health care. Nearly six in 10 voters also said they are unconcerned that the Massachusetts congressional delegation is composed entirely of Democrats.