New Poll Shows Barney Ahead of Bielat

Sean Bielat has Barney on the run, money rolling in, and ads being produced. A new poll, though, shows that Sean still has some work to do - that is, if you take it at face value.

The survey of 400 likely voters in Massachusetts’ 4th Congressional District finds Democrat Frank backed by 49 percent of voters and Bielat supported by 37 percent, with 12 percent still undecided less than two weeks before Election Day.

By my estimation, these polls are all off by 6 or 7 points, because they're unable to properly filter for likely voters. If I'm correct, that puts Sean at about 6 points down - well within striking distance with 11 days to go. Sean's new web ad, however, isn't likely to help.

Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans. “Barney’s got a real strong base there, and that’s really propelling him right now” in the heavily Democratic 4th, Fleming said.

Among independents, Bielat is beating Frank by 44 percent to 35 percent, with another 17 percent still undecided. But Bielat will need to win unaffiliated voters by a much bigger margin in order to defeat Frank, Fleming said.

Frank is running strongly among women, at 55 percent, and voters ages 60 and older, at 54 percent, and he is ahead of Bielat among all age groups. Bielat has a slim two-point advantage among male voters, winning 45 percent of men to Frank’s 43 percent.

The following video is the some behind the scenes on the making of the new ad with Barney dancing.