Nasty Race

The fight in Nevada appears to be going down to the wire, with both candidates so tainted by a season of vicious attack ads that voters are discouraged by the choices, and the process. Which means that even if the race remains a tie when election day arrives, Sharron Angle should beat Harry Reid by a comfortable margin.

Depending on the day and poll, Reid or Angle take turns holding a minor advantage over the other in numerous voter surveys. Surveys conducted Monday and Tuesday by the Las Vegas Review Journal and Mason Dixon Polling gave Angle a two-point edge over Reid. Rasmussen Reports gave Angle a one-point margin in a Monday poll.

Midterm elections are low-turnout affairs, so victory generally goes to the side with the most motivated voters. Polls indicate that conservative voters are substantially more excited about November 2 than are socialist voters - a difference so dramatic that pollsters are having trouble measuring likely voters using their traditional methods.

A new poll from the Washington Post, the Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University finds a huge disparity when it comes to which voters are motivated to vote in upcoming midterm elections.

According to the poll, 74 percent of self-described Tea Party supporters are "very enthusiastic" about voting in the elections. Contrast that with just 43 percent of Democrats and 57 of Republicans who say the same.

My rough calculation is that the Dems are operating under a 7 point handicap, so a tied race should go to Angle by 7.