Globe Poll Explains Why Charlie Will Win

While the new Boston Globe poll on the governor's race shows Deval leading by four points, it also points out why he's going to lose.

The survey found that 43 percent of likely Democratic voters are depressed about the election, while 76 percent of the Republicans are excited.

That's a stunning contrast. Democrats are sickened by the prospect of November 2nd because they feel stupid - they got conned by an attractive candidate and a meaningless slogan, and because they know they're going to lose. 59% of independents are excited about voting, and guess who they like?

With Patrick heavily favored by Democrats and Baker getting most Republican votes, the contest is coming down to independents, who make up more than half the electorate. Among registered independents, Baker leads 47 to 33 percent.

It gets worse. 32% of Baker voters are Very Excited about the election. Deval voters? Just 6% are very excited. And, if you disapprove of Deval, you're more excited about voting, by 21 points, then if you're one of the lunatics who thinks the governor is doing a good job.

And voters by a wide margin — 55 percent to 39 percent — believe the state is heading in the wrong direction, with many residents still out of work and worried about their economic future. That indicates a good portion of the electorate wants to change the leadership on Beacon Hill.

23% of Democrats aren't sure who they're going to vote for in the governor's race - another stat that spells trouble for Deval since voters have had four years to get to know and love him. Just 16% of Republicans aren't at least leaning toward a candidate, but they're most likely to vote for Charlie once they have pencil in hand.

Although last month’s Globe poll suggested that Cahill was drawing voters about equally from Baker and Patrick, the current poll suggests Cahill’s presence in the race could be hurting the Republican more. The sample size is small, but among Cahill voters, 46 percent said Baker was their second choice, and 22 percent said Patrick was.

On election day, I'd guess half of Cahill's vote will leave him, going to Charlie on a 2-1 basis.

In another sign of strong anti-incumbent sentiment, 49 percent of respondents said that, overall, they want to see a new crop of leaders in Massachusetts and in Washington. Only 28 percent said they trust current officeholders.

Charlie wins.