Getting Razzed

The new Rasmussen poll on the Massachusetts race came out today, with nothing new revealed. The automated polling firm generally gets great results, but I have trouble believing that their take is accurate. The idea that a mediocre incumbent in the middle of a wave election being held just ten months after the Scott Brown upset over Martha Coakley would beat a highly attractive GOP alternative violates my sense of reality.

Governor Deval Patrick still holds a slight lead over Republican challenger Charles Baker, according to a poll taken over the weekend.

I'm assuming that Scott Rasmussen, who we interviewed this morning - and who acknowledges the difficulty in properly accounting for the enthusiasm of the swing to the right - is simply not filtering out the voters who won't be showing up on election day. It would simply take too many voters with borderline interest to provide Deval with this margin, and this is not the year of the disengaged voter.

Patrick garnered 47 percent of the votes, while Baker had 42 percent of the vote in a telephone survey report by Rasmussen Reports taken Saturday night, just after President Obama had come to town on a whirlwind visit to stir up support for the Democratic incumbent.

So, off we go. There're just two weeks to go, and I remain confident that Charlie will win by the margins that Rasmussen and Suffolk show him losing.

Patrick and Baker were in the exact same position in today's Rasmussen poll as they were in a poll conducted by the company a month ago, with the former gaining 47 percent and the latter gaining 42 percent.

 

The survey of 750 likely Massachusetts voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.