Fiorina At Boxer's Heals in California

You see what a challenge this year is for pollsters... it's hard to know who's going to vote. Conservatives are very excited about election day, while Democrats have been bruised by Hope & Change.

Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer still holds a small lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Voters in the state.

Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, now earns 49% support to Fiorina’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings as it has for weeks. 

Boxer posted a 48% to 46% lead a week ago. In spite of her powers as an incumbent and California’s strong Democratic leanings, Boxer’s been struggling to widen the gap all year. She’s held a small lead in every survey but one since February with 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has earned 38% to 47% support in those same surveys.

Candidates' poll numbers are like stocks, which generally have normal patterns of highs and lows. But if turnout is suppressed by frustration or disappointment, the premise the polls are constructed on shifts, and so do the tallies.