Deval Slipping

A new Rasmussen poll is out today on the Massachusetts Governor's race. With 52% saying they won't vote for the incumbent, the numbers indicate that there's little chance for the Democrat, Deval Patrick, to hold onto the seat.

The fluid nature of the race is highlighted by the fact that a large segment of the electorate is still open to changing their mind. Just 64% of Patrick’s supporters are certain that they will vote for him and won’t change their mind. Only 58% of Baker’s supporters are that certain. Not surprisingly, the level of certainty is lowest for the third party candidate—28% of Cahill’s supporters are sure they will end up voting for him.

Deval's lead is down to 5%, continuing a trend that seems to indicate that as voters learn who Charlie Baker is, the race tightens.

Deval Patrick (D) 39%

Charlie Baker (R) 34%

Tim Cahill (I) 18%

When undecided voters who are leaning toward a particular candidate are included, the race tightens up.

As a result, when leaners are included, the race at the top becomes even closer—Patrick 44% Baker 42%, and Cahill 8%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. The approach anticipates the fact that support for third party candidates typically declines as Election Day draws near. This is the first Election 2010 survey in Massachusetts to include leaners.

Now that the race is into its last two months, the millions of dollars the candidates have been raising will be poured into TV ads, and Charlie's numbers will continue moving upward as his name recognition grows.

Sixty-four percent (64%) view Patrick as politically liberal while 21% say moderate.
For Baker, the numbers are 62% conservative and 21% moderate.
Cahill, a former Democrat, is seen as moderate by 38%, conservative by 33% and liberal by 18%.

Independent Tim Cahill's numbers should continue to drop as voters come to view him as a spoiler and abandon him for the other opposition candidate, Charlie Baker.

Governor Patrick's approval number has dropped four points since April, down to 46%, with 52% disapproving of the incumbent. Those figures include 21% who Strongly Approve and 33% who Strongly Disapprove.