Submitted By Todd on April 4th at 8:25am
This November, Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick will stand for re-election. The national media have long treated Patrick as Obama's political doppelgänger: they share Chicago roots, they both rely on political consultant David Axelrod (as well as some Axelrod-tested talking points) and they are both African-American. And Patrick is in big trouble.Deval was elected in 2006, two years before the president... so he could be viewed as a leading indicator.
“The same things that attracted me to Barack Obama attracted me to Deval Patrick,” Axelrod said, “this sense of public service as a calling and not a business and the sense that we have to break out of the old political paradigms of hyperpartisanship and special interest-dominance and bring about real change.”Governor.
The ticket of Charlie Baker and Richard Tisei raised $733,869 in the month of March according to the Office of Campaign and Political finance deposit reports as of last night. This figure includes approximately $592K raised by Charlie Baker and approximately $141K raised by Richard Tisei. With this total they have outraised all of the other declared candidates for governor and lieutenant governor combined.Baker, a visible but relatively unknown health insurance CEO, worked behind the scenes in the administrations of Governors Weld and Cellucci. But he is known to political insiders, and political insiders are voting for Baker.
The Democratic team of Deval Patrick and Tim Murray raised a combined total of $444,177.61. The Patrick Committee raised $308K of that amount with Tim Murray raising the balance.State Treasurer Tim Cahill quit the Democratic Party a few months ago so he could challenge Deval as an independent. Cahill's ability to siphon votes away from the Republicans is viewed as Deval's only chance at reelection. While Cahill isn't raising much cash, he spent years stockpiling $3 million for this run.
The dynamic supposedly conservative duo of Tim Cahill and Paul Loscocco raised a combined total of $80,054. $75,631 of that total came from Tim Cahill's fundraising while Loscocco raised the balance. The $80,054 is less than the down ballot treasurer candidate Karyn Polito raised in March.In their most recent poll on the race, Suffolk University pollsters declared the Governor essentially out of the race - even though he was leading!
“This race is really between Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which conducted the poll. “Whoever emerges between the Baker-Cahill race is likely to be the winner.”Structural issues revealed in the poll, such as the percentage of undecided voters who called themselves independent, lead Paleologos to his bold assertion, as independents lean so strongly against the incumbent. He also saw a powerful trend away from Patrick.
So, what does this tell us about the president's fortune? Perhaps not much. But WBZ political reporter John Keller reports that Democratic political operatives he talks to about Deval Patrick offer a pretty consistent narrative about the Governor that goes like this:
He pretends to listen, but really doesn’t. You meet with him about something important, and think you have a reached agreement on the way forward, and the next day you read in the paper that he’s done the opposite. He needlessly antagonizes you, then acts shocked and offended when you call him on it.It does sound a bit like how the president is treating voters. More important, though, is the hope that both candidates offered to voters that they could cut through the weeds of partisan bickering.
One important characteristic defines them both, however. Each was elected promising not just to enact a specific set of proposals but to change the very way business is conducted. Each has found it much harder than he'd expected to fulfill that promise.The lesson for voters just may be that inexperienced outsiders are no panacea. That might make well-respected insiders like Charlie Baker look like the sort of "Change" America is needing.