What does professional political handicapper Stu Rothenberg predict for November in the house?
National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects,” Rothenberg told his clients. “Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible.”
That sounds conservative to me, but it also sounds really good! How about the other big odds maker, Charlie Cook.
Over the summer, the "macro" national diagnostic indicators have pointed toward very large Republican gains but only now can we look race-by-race, a micro-political approach, and see the district level data to say that the House has reached the tipping point. For the first time, our internal race-by-race model estimates a GOP gain of over 40 seats. We are revising our House forecast to a Republican gain of at least 40 seats, the minimum to give them majority status, and very possibly substantially more.
Republicans would need a 39-seat pickup to seize control of the House — and with the tide turning against the Democrats, some prognosticators are predicting that the GOP could get 60.
That sounds more realistic.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 61 percent of the public thinks the country is on the “wrong track,” up from 48 percent a year ago. And it suggests that the administration’s “recovery summer” was a bust: In May, 40 percent of respondents said the economy would get better in the next 12 months. Now, that figure is 26 percent.