Climb Break

A new poll shows Charlie Baker losing some ground against Governor Deval Patrick, as pollster Scott Rasmussen moves the race from toss-up to leans Democrat. Deval is apparently getting some benefit out of his ad campaign that started in September.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Massachusetts shows Patrick earning 47% support to Baker’s 42% when leaners are included. Cahill trails with six percent (6%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

In the last Rasmussen survey, Baker was down three.

Two weeks ago, Patrick held a 45% to 42% edge on Baker, with Cahill at five percent (5%) when leaners were part of the totals.  Patrick, who is seeking a second four-year-term, has held the lead in surveys since March, but Baker has narrowed the gap as support for Cahill has faded.

There's another set of numbers in the Governor's race, as the Baker campaign released results from an internal poll that shows the Republican up 1 point.

Charlie Baker - 39%
Deval Patrick - 38%
Tim Cahill - 11%
Jill Stein - 2%
Undecided - 10%

The Baker folks must be depressed over the Rasmussen numbers, which keep Charlie stubbornly in second place. A couple of polls showing him in the lead would allow some buzz to start, which would bring an influx of national money and some momentum. Still, there's a month to go.

Two weeks ago, Patrick held a 45% to 42% edge on Baker, with Cahill at five percent (5%) when leaners were part of the totals.  Patrick, who is seeking a second four-year-term, has held the lead in surveys since March, but Baker has narrowed the gap as support for Cahill has faded.

Here are more details from the Baker poll.

At this point in the race, Charlie Baker is the only candidate with a positive image in the state:

Charlie Baker:  42% favorable - 26% unfavorable (Margin +16)
Deval Patrick:  46% favorable - 51% unfavorable (Margin -5)
Tim Cahill:  33% favorable - 42% unfavorable (Margin -9)

And from Rasmussen.

When leaners are excluded from the totals, Patrick picks up 43% support to Baker’s 39% and Cahill’s 11%. This is virtually identical to the prior survey minus leaners that found Patrick with 42%, Baker at 38% and Cahill with 11%.

After a Globe poll showing Charlie within one of Deval, it is an excitement killer for Rasmussen to show a break in his climb. Nevertheless, the bad economy and huge energy advantage on the conservative side should send the final tally in Charlie's direction come election day.