Can Sestak Beat Toomey? Tide Should Save Pennsylvania

What's up in PA? Republican Pat Toomey still holds the lead, but barely.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Pat Toomey continued to hold his lead over Democratic candidate U.S. Rep. Joseph Sestak, D-7, of Edgmont, in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.

Toomey now leads Sestak 50 percent to 46 percent, with one percent preferring another candidate and 3 percent undecided.

The polls have been up and down.

For months, the trend lines hardly budged, but in the last few weeks, the polls tracking Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race have sent squiggly lines bouncing all over the charts: Democrat Joe Sestak takes a narrow lead. No, Republican Pat Toomey is ahead by a smidgen. Wait a minute, they're tied. And then Toomey is back in front, widening the gap.

With less than 48 hours before the real polls open, the campaigns Sunday were hustling to turn out their bases, and the consensus of strategists and analysts was that Sestak is a slight underdog yet within striking distance of Toomey.

While other polls have shown an even closer race, Rasmussen has settled into a consistent pattern, which points to the difficulty of comparing one poll's results to another's.

Toomey’s 4 point lead is virtually unchanged from the last Rasmussen poll released a week ago, though the number of undecided voters Sestak can court continues to dwindle.

Three weeks ago, when Toomey was leading 49 percent to 39 percent, Rasmussen said 10 percent of voters were still undecided. Last week, that figure dropped to 7 percent and is now at just 3 percent.

Can the Democratic machine tilt things toward Sestak tomorrow? I think Toomey will win this race, but Democrats warn that their ability to drag people off the street to vote keeps them competetive.