Brown Can Do
Submitted By Todd on January 18th at 4:57pm
This morning on MSNBC’s Morning Joe show, as Chris Matthews reported his conversation with Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos that the GOP’s Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley by “double-digits” in the “Bellweather areas” of Massachusetts, audible gasps of “Oh, my God” are loudly heard on the MSNBC set.Yesterday, Charlie Cook adjusted his assessment of the Mass senate race to leaning, barely, toward Scott Brown. Now the other big political odds maker, Stu Rothenberg, is taking things a step further.
While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.While it's tough to feel comfortable in predicting a race where turnout is so variable, the Rothenberg Report feels the evidence is leaning strong enough to call it for Scott.
Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.That's not all.
There’s another reason for Brown supporters to smile. Though hardly scientific, the wagering on Intrade, a Web site that calls itself a predictions market, suggests a comfortable win for Brown. The price is a moving target, but when we last checked Coakley was down to $35 (translation: 35% of the vote) and Brown up to $65 (65%).Have Democrats given up on Coakley? After all, the president was only in town long enough to do the one event with Coakley yesterday - no campaigning. In Washington, they're busy speculating on what happens to the radical agenda if Coakley loses.
House Democrats privately worry that the rank-and-file would reject a doomsday strategy that requires them to approve the Senate health care bill if Republican Scott Brown wins in Massachusetts on Tuesday. "Progressives and conservatives in the caucus won't go for it," one aide predicted on Monday.Why would Democrats stick with the health care bill knowing that it's caused such havoc in Massachusetts, of all places, when all of the House and a third of the Senate must face voters in 10 months? We've been hearing many stories over the past couple of weeks about a surplus of volunteers at Scott Brown's phone banks. Martha Coakley was not having that sort of luck this morning, as this video indicates.
Excitement seems to be building in the Coakley camp.